Trump is “just doing things,” and Europe is floundering. But an interesting possibility is that his reckless or strategic approach is forcing Europe into a long-overdue hard power realignment. I see that in some of the comments above and around Substack.
Europe isn’t weak. With a $24T GDP and 500M people, it vastly outweighs Russia ($2T GDP, 140M people). The issue isn’t capability—it’s coordination. NATO estimates 23 of its 32 members will hit 2% GDP defense spending this year, with many pushing for 2.5–3%. The EU is ramping up weapons production and debating its own rapid reaction force. Yet political fragmentation (Germany hesitating, Poland acting alone) still undermines European autonomy.
Trump sees his economic play in Ukraine—securing $1T in mineral rights and post-war reconstruction contracts—as a shrewd business move. In reality, it looks more like standover tactics and extortion, locking Europe out despite Europe having funded more of Ukraine’s defense than the U.S. See my post: The Don Framework https://open.substack.com/pub/johnbaker768156/p/the-don-framework?r=294g0v&utm_medium=ios
If Europe wants real leverage, it can’t just be NATO’s ATM. It needs a seat at the decision-making table, whether through defense industrial expansion or securing its own economic stakes in Ukraine’s recovery. Most everyone seems to agree on this.
Trump’s AI policy is another case of the U.S. moving decisively while Europe dithers. AI’s economic value won’t be captured by patent holders alone but by who integrates it fastest into industry.
If Europe doesn’t want to be permanently dependent on American AI breakthroughs, it needs to think beyond regulation and start prioritizing deployment. STEM talent is the real resource here—and Europe lags behind the U.S. and China in adoption, not due to lack of research but because its industries haven’t fully embraced AI-driven transformation.
Trump’s unpredictability has jolted Europe, but the correct response as you note is action, not kicking more cans down more roads.
Europe has the money, technology, and people to take charge of its security and economic future. What it lacks is a coherent vision and the political will to execute. Trump’s America is acting decisively. The only question is whether Europe will finally rise up and do the same.
"The only question is whether Europe will finally rise up and do the same." Hear, hear. The trillion dollar question. If Europe is serious, leaders need to have a frank conversation with citizens about: energy (scrapping net zero targets), reducing welfare spend - and that's only the beginning.
Yes, exactly. If Europe is serious about becoming a hard power, this represents a massive shift in the political psyche of European voters. Europe’s signal principle has long been redistribution—both within nations and across the EU. These are things you can do in a ‘nice’ world. Hard power demands a fundamentally different mindset: prioritizing strength over security nets, production over consumption, and strategic autonomy over collective deliberation.
The energy and welfare trade-offs you mention aren’t just policy tweaks; they challenge the core assumptions of the European model. Are European voters ready for that? Because a true pivot to hard power means embracing a more ruthless, competition-driven outlook—something that cuts against decades of political culture.
I think you’re right that it starts with a frank conversation. But who is willing to have it? And who can win on that platform?”
The complication is that a "European" defies that singular term. In reality, the [truer imperfect] union is 27 competing states with differing cultures, languages and national legislatures. This places it as flat-footed in its agility and decision-making, when compared with the USA or Russia.
The current dramatic changes being forced upon European-wide thinking present a number of inflection points, which offer some distinct opportunities. With the turmoil in higher education and research in the US, Europe appears to be a much more attractive destination for knowledge talent; the cheaper training costs for LLMs make European challengers a distinct possibility. Rapid and evolving changes in spending (e.g. defence, manufacturing…) could inject growth potential...
The potential is there, but, as you have pointed out in your posts, getting there will be the real hard work and fraught with difficulties. 'Twas ever so.
Hi James. “The complication is that a "European" defies that singular term. In reality, the [truer imperfect] union is 27 competing states with differing cultures, languages and national legislatures.” Yes. Absolutely. This is how it has been, Europe as less a singular entity than a collection of competing states, each with its own identity together with a degree of wariness of Brussels.
That resistance to centralisation was, for a long time, manageable because the Western world was the world that counted, at least to Europeans. The US, New Zealand (where I am), Australia, Canada and the rich Asian economies formed a comfortable order, and Europe’s internal divisions didn’t threaten its place within this world.
But the world has changed. The applecart has been overturned, and for the first time in decades, Europeans are looking out at a world that does not have them in their natural place within it. (This is true for NZ as well. We just sacked our High Commissioner to the United Kingdom for making a non-lickspittle joke about Trump.)
This kind of uncertainty does something completely predictable: previously fractious people close ranks. An external threat—be it economic, geopolitical, or technological—has a way of forging common purpose, even among those who would rather not cooperate. And in this mess, there is both the opportunity (as you note) and the necessity to respond. Europe’s usual sluggishness may not be an option much longer.
From my location here in New Zealand I am wondering what we peripheral bits and bobs of the old order will find as our new path as we pick our way through the shards. I have an unexpected (by me) aspect of exhilaration at the thought of new opportunities.
I agree with a lot of that save that Trump may be "doing things" but he is not "acting decisively". His strategic and economic ignorance and incoherence will damage America. The EU's strength is that it is a consensus organisation of states but this does carry a weakness of inflexibility and a lack of direction. But Europe is not and cannot be a federated state like the US, so it must maximise its strengths and be mindful if its weaknesses. There are few Europeans who would rather live in the US.
I think Elon’s chainsaw is the best image as a symbol for what he is doing to the international order, achieved after 8 decades of patient and expensive work.
Not just his lack of coherence, but also the people advising him on how to scale up the AI 'industry', which is still a very unpredictable market and often simply a solution looking for a problem.
Excellent column but I have to disagree slightly. The EU is doing something, using every crisis as an opportunity to centralize power and Brussels and remove national government as having any say.
In the name of democracy, they just removed Hungary‘s veto. From Covid to Ukraine, Brussels wants to become like Washington with national governments being the states having limited say.
Just want to say, President Trump is not “just doing things”, he is UNDoing all the evil corrupted schemes and grand theft that have been going on in the name of many fake “charities and humanitarian efforts”. You all liberals can attack all you want, the people is not having it, they support Trump! So your own paycheck will still means something and the government will not be bankrupt.
70 years of post-WWII US security and the resulting suicidal empathy driven social and economic policies are what have left Europe unable to cope with an increasingly competitive and adversarial world.
You ask what planet 'they' are living on. In my case it is the one that is being destroyed by our greed and stupidity. The only inhabitable planet we know of, with its rich biodiversity, great beauty, intricate ecosystems and, seemingly unique in the universe, life. So, if I put protecting the environment that we depend upon for every second of our existence ahead of which particular flavour of exploitative elite rules us, then that seems entirely rational to me. No doubt you'll argue that some exploiters will be more destructive of life than others. True, but all inevitably take us to civilizational collapse, so its just a matter of how quickly.
It isn't so wrong now, is it? Zelenskyy had to come back a few days later, and the only thing that changed is that Ukraine has lost even more leverage.
You know the 'actual situation' and yet what's come to pass? The big blow up in the Oval Office - and as awful as it was, I don't think it was premeditated. Less than a week later, and Zelensky is back to the table, saying he is ready to sign the deal 'anytime'. Trump will make him wait until he feels ready to 'do things.'
I will refrain from making any final judgments. In recent months they have been aging too quickly and usually the outcome of the talks is completely different than everyone thought it would be.
In light of the most recent announcements on the war in Ukraine and the likelihood of a ceasefire, your post did not age well at all! The US has the leverage on Russia as well as Ukraine and the EU. Everyone knows it except the neo-Con war promoters who would rather continue to see the meat grinder of this war continue than to give Trump a nod of approval that he may actually stop the killing and threat of thermo-nuclear war. Imagine that....
Lastly, to outside observers, the EU appears to be circling the drain in many concerning ways. The self -sacrifice of the German industrial power at the heart of EU economic strength was breathtaking to watch. Their silence at the destruction of the Nordsteam pipeline despite such obvious and severe impacts to their own interests is very difficult to understand now that the veil is being pulled back on the true cost and excesses in the war in Ukraine. Perhaps symptomatic of the lack of cogent and rational EU sensibility to prioritize economic development and stewardship as the most important value in their societies vs. empathetic suicide and endless social justice/culture wars at the expense of pragmatic policy that recognizes the reality of the world we live in vs the world as a fantasy play.
Frankly, EU claims of launching an 800B Euro defence fund etc are laughable. For a start, for as long as they remain wedded to net zero, their economies will be hobbled. Equally, having virtually bankrupted themselves with unaffordable social welfare schemes and insane open borders, they have no money to spend. And are very poorly positioned to borrow the amounts they're talking about.
All of which is before the EU's chronic inability to actually commit and execute any policy. Especially ones that break shibboleths like net zero etc.
None of this will change without significant reform of EU itself. Reforms it has refused to acknowledge the need for. Much less consider actually conducting!
Bottom line? Europe, courtesy of EU, is going to become less and less relevant.
Meanwhile, an American renaissance under Trump, is on the way. Manufacturing is returning to America. Including a few European car companies and several very large IT businesses.
Once he has got government spending under control, (which, despite the outrage of the Democrat party and legacy media, his government will), America is going to resume its position as unquestionably the largest economy, and most powerful nation, on the planet.
Nothing EU does is going to change that. No matter how much it splutters in shock and horror!
This is nonsense EU will stand long after the Trump process of destroying USA has been completed. EU has more strength and unity than the shambles that is USA. Trump's trade war will leave USA isolated with their people up in arms literally with de facto civil war just in time to stop the midterm elections as the Ketamine kid flounders out of his car and off on his bike.
Somewhat agreed, but we as Europeans have the ability to drive at 90mph into a concrete wall and brake at the last moment. Bit like Max verstappen drives his f1 car in corners. This is a needed wake up call and it gives room for other powers to arise. We as Europeans are a sleeping giant (very deep sleep until recently 🛌 but once waken up (and braking in time) we can get moving. Problem with giants? They move slow. So it’s too late imho. And Lets not forger that the US actively made us depended on their power and military.
Trump is “just doing things,” and Europe is floundering. But an interesting possibility is that his reckless or strategic approach is forcing Europe into a long-overdue hard power realignment. I see that in some of the comments above and around Substack.
Europe isn’t weak. With a $24T GDP and 500M people, it vastly outweighs Russia ($2T GDP, 140M people). The issue isn’t capability—it’s coordination. NATO estimates 23 of its 32 members will hit 2% GDP defense spending this year, with many pushing for 2.5–3%. The EU is ramping up weapons production and debating its own rapid reaction force. Yet political fragmentation (Germany hesitating, Poland acting alone) still undermines European autonomy.
Trump sees his economic play in Ukraine—securing $1T in mineral rights and post-war reconstruction contracts—as a shrewd business move. In reality, it looks more like standover tactics and extortion, locking Europe out despite Europe having funded more of Ukraine’s defense than the U.S. See my post: The Don Framework https://open.substack.com/pub/johnbaker768156/p/the-don-framework?r=294g0v&utm_medium=ios
If Europe wants real leverage, it can’t just be NATO’s ATM. It needs a seat at the decision-making table, whether through defense industrial expansion or securing its own economic stakes in Ukraine’s recovery. Most everyone seems to agree on this.
Trump’s AI policy is another case of the U.S. moving decisively while Europe dithers. AI’s economic value won’t be captured by patent holders alone but by who integrates it fastest into industry.
If Europe doesn’t want to be permanently dependent on American AI breakthroughs, it needs to think beyond regulation and start prioritizing deployment. STEM talent is the real resource here—and Europe lags behind the U.S. and China in adoption, not due to lack of research but because its industries haven’t fully embraced AI-driven transformation.
Trump’s unpredictability has jolted Europe, but the correct response as you note is action, not kicking more cans down more roads.
Europe has the money, technology, and people to take charge of its security and economic future. What it lacks is a coherent vision and the political will to execute. Trump’s America is acting decisively. The only question is whether Europe will finally rise up and do the same.
"The only question is whether Europe will finally rise up and do the same." Hear, hear. The trillion dollar question. If Europe is serious, leaders need to have a frank conversation with citizens about: energy (scrapping net zero targets), reducing welfare spend - and that's only the beginning.
Yes, exactly. If Europe is serious about becoming a hard power, this represents a massive shift in the political psyche of European voters. Europe’s signal principle has long been redistribution—both within nations and across the EU. These are things you can do in a ‘nice’ world. Hard power demands a fundamentally different mindset: prioritizing strength over security nets, production over consumption, and strategic autonomy over collective deliberation.
The energy and welfare trade-offs you mention aren’t just policy tweaks; they challenge the core assumptions of the European model. Are European voters ready for that? Because a true pivot to hard power means embracing a more ruthless, competition-driven outlook—something that cuts against decades of political culture.
I think you’re right that it starts with a frank conversation. But who is willing to have it? And who can win on that platform?”
The complication is that a "European" defies that singular term. In reality, the [truer imperfect] union is 27 competing states with differing cultures, languages and national legislatures. This places it as flat-footed in its agility and decision-making, when compared with the USA or Russia.
The current dramatic changes being forced upon European-wide thinking present a number of inflection points, which offer some distinct opportunities. With the turmoil in higher education and research in the US, Europe appears to be a much more attractive destination for knowledge talent; the cheaper training costs for LLMs make European challengers a distinct possibility. Rapid and evolving changes in spending (e.g. defence, manufacturing…) could inject growth potential...
The potential is there, but, as you have pointed out in your posts, getting there will be the real hard work and fraught with difficulties. 'Twas ever so.
Hi James. “The complication is that a "European" defies that singular term. In reality, the [truer imperfect] union is 27 competing states with differing cultures, languages and national legislatures.” Yes. Absolutely. This is how it has been, Europe as less a singular entity than a collection of competing states, each with its own identity together with a degree of wariness of Brussels.
That resistance to centralisation was, for a long time, manageable because the Western world was the world that counted, at least to Europeans. The US, New Zealand (where I am), Australia, Canada and the rich Asian economies formed a comfortable order, and Europe’s internal divisions didn’t threaten its place within this world.
But the world has changed. The applecart has been overturned, and for the first time in decades, Europeans are looking out at a world that does not have them in their natural place within it. (This is true for NZ as well. We just sacked our High Commissioner to the United Kingdom for making a non-lickspittle joke about Trump.)
This kind of uncertainty does something completely predictable: previously fractious people close ranks. An external threat—be it economic, geopolitical, or technological—has a way of forging common purpose, even among those who would rather not cooperate. And in this mess, there is both the opportunity (as you note) and the necessity to respond. Europe’s usual sluggishness may not be an option much longer.
From my location here in New Zealand I am wondering what we peripheral bits and bobs of the old order will find as our new path as we pick our way through the shards. I have an unexpected (by me) aspect of exhilaration at the thought of new opportunities.
I agree with a lot of that save that Trump may be "doing things" but he is not "acting decisively". His strategic and economic ignorance and incoherence will damage America. The EU's strength is that it is a consensus organisation of states but this does carry a weakness of inflexibility and a lack of direction. But Europe is not and cannot be a federated state like the US, so it must maximise its strengths and be mindful if its weaknesses. There are few Europeans who would rather live in the US.
I think Elon’s chainsaw is the best image as a symbol for what he is doing to the international order, achieved after 8 decades of patient and expensive work.
Not just his lack of coherence, but also the people advising him on how to scale up the AI 'industry', which is still a very unpredictable market and often simply a solution looking for a problem.
Excellent column but I have to disagree slightly. The EU is doing something, using every crisis as an opportunity to centralize power and Brussels and remove national government as having any say.
In the name of democracy, they just removed Hungary‘s veto. From Covid to Ukraine, Brussels wants to become like Washington with national governments being the states having limited say.
I think he’s already broken the USA…
Just want to say, President Trump is not “just doing things”, he is UNDoing all the evil corrupted schemes and grand theft that have been going on in the name of many fake “charities and humanitarian efforts”. You all liberals can attack all you want, the people is not having it, they support Trump! So your own paycheck will still means something and the government will not be bankrupt.
70 years of post-WWII US security and the resulting suicidal empathy driven social and economic policies are what have left Europe unable to cope with an increasingly competitive and adversarial world.
Europe is like a spoilt only child!
Europe suicided itself many years ago, we’re just watching the slow death.
You ask what planet 'they' are living on. In my case it is the one that is being destroyed by our greed and stupidity. The only inhabitable planet we know of, with its rich biodiversity, great beauty, intricate ecosystems and, seemingly unique in the universe, life. So, if I put protecting the environment that we depend upon for every second of our existence ahead of which particular flavour of exploitative elite rules us, then that seems entirely rational to me. No doubt you'll argue that some exploiters will be more destructive of life than others. True, but all inevitably take us to civilizational collapse, so its just a matter of how quickly.
The Ukraine part of the analysis is already very wrong just few days later. Didnt predict that one did you?
It isn't so wrong now, is it? Zelenskyy had to come back a few days later, and the only thing that changed is that Ukraine has lost even more leverage.
Who could have?!
I don't think that anybody could predict such an outcome.
You know the 'actual situation' and yet what's come to pass? The big blow up in the Oval Office - and as awful as it was, I don't think it was premeditated. Less than a week later, and Zelensky is back to the table, saying he is ready to sign the deal 'anytime'. Trump will make him wait until he feels ready to 'do things.'
The outburst in front of the camera wasn't really predictable to anyone.
I will refrain from making any final judgments. In recent months they have been aging too quickly and usually the outcome of the talks is completely different than everyone thought it would be.
Trump is giving Europe a great opportunity to make Europe great again.
I have wrote about it:
https://open.substack.com/pub/weissword/p/the-unexpected-gift-of-trumps-isolationism?r=ttlrd&utm_medium=ios
In light of the most recent announcements on the war in Ukraine and the likelihood of a ceasefire, your post did not age well at all! The US has the leverage on Russia as well as Ukraine and the EU. Everyone knows it except the neo-Con war promoters who would rather continue to see the meat grinder of this war continue than to give Trump a nod of approval that he may actually stop the killing and threat of thermo-nuclear war. Imagine that....
Lastly, to outside observers, the EU appears to be circling the drain in many concerning ways. The self -sacrifice of the German industrial power at the heart of EU economic strength was breathtaking to watch. Their silence at the destruction of the Nordsteam pipeline despite such obvious and severe impacts to their own interests is very difficult to understand now that the veil is being pulled back on the true cost and excesses in the war in Ukraine. Perhaps symptomatic of the lack of cogent and rational EU sensibility to prioritize economic development and stewardship as the most important value in their societies vs. empathetic suicide and endless social justice/culture wars at the expense of pragmatic policy that recognizes the reality of the world we live in vs the world as a fantasy play.
Minor correction: The war in Ukraine is now entering its fourth year (not third).
TY!
Correction breaking with European Alliances , Europe is not broken.
Frankly, EU claims of launching an 800B Euro defence fund etc are laughable. For a start, for as long as they remain wedded to net zero, their economies will be hobbled. Equally, having virtually bankrupted themselves with unaffordable social welfare schemes and insane open borders, they have no money to spend. And are very poorly positioned to borrow the amounts they're talking about.
All of which is before the EU's chronic inability to actually commit and execute any policy. Especially ones that break shibboleths like net zero etc.
None of this will change without significant reform of EU itself. Reforms it has refused to acknowledge the need for. Much less consider actually conducting!
Bottom line? Europe, courtesy of EU, is going to become less and less relevant.
Meanwhile, an American renaissance under Trump, is on the way. Manufacturing is returning to America. Including a few European car companies and several very large IT businesses.
Once he has got government spending under control, (which, despite the outrage of the Democrat party and legacy media, his government will), America is going to resume its position as unquestionably the largest economy, and most powerful nation, on the planet.
Nothing EU does is going to change that. No matter how much it splutters in shock and horror!
This is nonsense EU will stand long after the Trump process of destroying USA has been completed. EU has more strength and unity than the shambles that is USA. Trump's trade war will leave USA isolated with their people up in arms literally with de facto civil war just in time to stop the midterm elections as the Ketamine kid flounders out of his car and off on his bike.
Why should I read this when you think the war is entering its 3 rd year rather than the 4th.
Somewhat agreed, but we as Europeans have the ability to drive at 90mph into a concrete wall and brake at the last moment. Bit like Max verstappen drives his f1 car in corners. This is a needed wake up call and it gives room for other powers to arise. We as Europeans are a sleeping giant (very deep sleep until recently 🛌 but once waken up (and braking in time) we can get moving. Problem with giants? They move slow. So it’s too late imho. And Lets not forger that the US actively made us depended on their power and military.
In the past maybe… now???