Trump is the AI President
AI is about power, welcome to the AI Order
AI is about power, and the race for technological dominance will shape the geopolitics of the 21st century. Now say it louder for the people in the back: AI is about POWER.
We've left behind the innocent era where artificial intelligence was confined to ivory towers research labs in Silicon Valley. AI has exploded from a niche scientific curiosity into the central battlefield of our age. Trillions of dollars are flooding into AI infrastructure—massive data centers, electricity grids, and semiconductor fabrication—because without this backbone, AI simply cannot exist.
Investors still clinging to the notion that AI is merely a productivity tool fundamentally misread the landscape: AI isn't Excel 2.0; it's the foundation of future economic and military supremacy.
Vladimir Putin saw this reality with crystal clarity in 2017 when he declared: Whoever becomes the leader in this sphere[AI], will become the ruler of the world.
Putin said it, but Xi Jinping is actually trying to achieve it. That same year, China launched its comprehensive "Next Generation Artificial Intelligence Development Plan," explicitly targeting global AI dominance by 2030. Beijing followed this with its 2019 State Council white paper, which positioned "intelligent warfare" as the cornerstone of the People's Liberation Army's modernization.
This aggressive positioning reflects China's broader ambition: to assertively reclaim what it considers its rightful historical position on the world stage. Make no mistake—China sees AI not as a collaboration opportunity, but as the decisive weapon to secure military and economic dominance.
The US on Edge
I assumed that the connection between AI and geopolitical power was obvious. I also thought that America's increasing vulnerability in a post-hegemonic world was self-evident, but if my recent interactions online are representative of broader public consensus, they are anything but!
The chaotic spectacle of Trump's administration and their brute-force approach to 'just doing things' is provoking such visceral and emotional responses both domestically and in Europe that it is obscuring these fundamental truths.
So let me state this unequivocally: If technological dominance is to define the story of this century, the US stands on precarious ground. US dominance is neither permanent nor divinely granted and it must treat its primary global competitor, China, with deadly seriousness.
This is precisely where Donald Trump 2.0 enters the picture. His administration grasps the technological stakes with surprising clarity. Not because the octogenarian is some brilliant game theorist, but because Trump is a creature who instinctively understands the dynamics of power. As this technological tsunami prepares to engulf society, he recognizes that AI represents the ultimate power currency.
Love him or loathe him, Trump is transforming into the 'AI President. This was unmistakable at his inauguration, where he stood surrounded by America's tech titans—many who had previously openly scorned the 47th President but now eagerly supportive.
Indeed, Trump's presidency may mark the pivotal moment when AI evolves from technical curiosity to paramount national security concern.
AGI is Closer
Why? First, because history has arrived at our doorstep. While prominent skeptics still dismiss AI as a ‘nothing burger,’ and 90% of the public thinks AI is ChatGPT, those at the frontier are converging on a sobering consensus: AGI isn't just inevitable—it's imminent.
Timelines once measured in decades (20-100 years) have collapsed to within a single decade. AGI may mean different things to different people, but for our purposes, let's assume it means systems that can perform a wide range of human tasks at or above the performance of a human being.
Consider the implications: autonomous weapons systems, robotic warfare platforms, and advanced cyber capabilities that can penetrate adversaries' defenses at will. In this landscape, even a modest technological lead could translate into devastating geopolitical advantage. Even Biden's Special AI Advisor, Ben Buchanan said this week that that highly capable AI systems are imminent – potentially during Trump's second term—a timeline that should alarm anyone concerned with global stability.
The emergence of AGI might be accelerated or hindered by geopolitical friction (like semiconductor export controls), but the consensus view now treats AGI as a nearly certain development—not a question of if, but when.
“My guess is that we'll have AI that is smarter than any one human probably around the end of [2025]. By 2029, AI is probably smarter than all humans combined.” - Elon Musk (2024)
“I wouldn't be surprised if it [AGI] comes in the next decade." - Demis Hassabis, Google DeepMind (2024)
"We are now confident we know how to build AGI as we have traditionally understood it." - Sam Altman, Open AI (2025)
America First, AI First
The second reason is even more direct: Trump's administration has explicitly embraced AI dominance as a cornerstone of American economic strategy. This has become the central—perhaps the defining—pillar of his 'America First' doctrine.
Yes, this comes a full 7.5 years after China declared its intention to 'win at AI,' but Trump has wasted no time since coming into office. Within hours of being inaugurated, he signed an executive order - "Removing Barriers to American Leadership in Artificial Intelligence" - to dismantle Biden's safety-focused regulatory framework in a move to unleash American AI development at maximum velocity.
The pace of change since then has been dizzying, and we're barely eight weeks into his term. The announcements keep coming so rapidly that they're difficult to track. For anyone doubting this administration's seriousness, listen to JD Vance's speech in Paris last month, where he outlined the architecture of Trump's AI strategy. The forthcoming 'AI Action Plan' in June should bring further detail —expect it to be aggressive, comprehensive, and unapologetic.
One theme is clearly developing: the federal government intends to work in lockstep with Silicon Valley to accelerate AI development regardless of concerns from ethicists, safety researchers, or international partners. This public-private fusion mirrors China's approach, where such partnerships have been the cornerstone of technology policy for years.
China's Sputnik Moment
If China does indeed represent the US’s principal national security challenge, then Trump's realignment between government and tech industry is arguably arriving not a moment too soon: victory in the AI race is anything but guaranteed.
DeepSeek R1's model represented a 'Sputnik moment’ for AI. Released (surely not coincidentally) on the eve of Trump's inauguration, it demonstrated that Chinese teams could rapidly 'distill' and iterate upon the pioneering work of American AI labs—accomplishing in months what U.S. teams had taken years to develop. (Apropos, since then, China has been rapidly adopting and integrating DeepSeek's technology across various levels of government, in stark contrast to the bans and restrictions in other countries.)
The US, regardless of its innovative capacity, cannot afford the luxury of assuming technological superiority. It is noteworthy that several key DeepSeek team members have connections to Microsoft Research Asia (MSRA) based in Beijing. You can bet your bottom dollar that the Chinese Communist Party is strategically positioning its talent within major U.S. AI organizations to maximize knowledge transfer.
Infrastructure Is Critical
While frontier models themselves offer 'no moat' or sustainable competitive advantage, the true strategic moat lies in AI infrastructure and access to the critical resources that power it—energy, water, rare earth elements, and minerals. These physical requirements will determine which nations can sustain AI development at scale. Washington is undoubtedly monitoring China's aggressive AI infrastructure buildout with mounting concern. (It is also why the Trump administration is so interested in signing a minerals deal with Ukraine.)
This explains why AI infrastructure now stands at the epicenter of Trump's trade policies. In a world where American technological dominance is increasingly contestable, and where AI could fundamentally reshape global power dynamics, everything is at stake.
This framework helps partially decode the seemingly irrational trade wars launched under Trump's direction.
In his recent address to Congress, Trump explicitly stated his intention to use tariffs as leverage to repatriate critical supply chains and relocate AI infrastructure to American soil. He boasted of the $1.7 trillion in domestic investment his policies have supposedly attracted—primarily directed toward AI infrastructure and American industrial revitalization. The subtext couldn't be clearer: We will decouple from China, whatever the short-term economic costs.
The scale of these investments is staggering:
STARGATE: An unprecedented $500 billion private investment into AI infrastructure promised by the CEOs of OpenAI, Oracle, and SoftBank alongside President Trump. As proclaimed by Trump, it is the 'largest AI infrastructure investment in history.' Of course, this assumes the capital can actually be raised—as Elon Musk pointedly noted on X immediately following Trump's speech, these commitments currently exist primarily on paper. As China's Belt and Road Initiative (approximate $1.1 trillion) shows when it comes to hard power, Beijing isn't afraid of placing massive bets on infrastructure either.
APPLE: In this frenzied climate, even Apple's massive $500 billion investment pledge risks being overlooked. While not exclusively capital expenditure, the centerpiece of this American AI manufacturing strategy includes a state-of-the-art factory in Houston, Texas dedicated to producing Apple's AI servers. Scheduled to become operational in 2026, it promises 20,000 American jobs—a remarkable shift from Apple's longstanding 'designed in California, assembled in China' model.
TSMC: Just days ago, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company—the world's preeminent advanced chipmaker—announced an additional $100 billion investment in U.S. production facilities, bringing its total American commitment to $165 billion. Semiconductor manufacturing has historically been prohibitively expensive in America due to higher labor costs, workforce shortages, and stricter regulatory requirements. Nevertheless, TSMC is establishing multiple fabrication plants on American soil—following its first Arizona facility that began producing Apple's M1 chips last year.
“In Arizona, we’re producing the most advanced chip made on US soil. With the success of our first plant, we are now very happy to announce we are going to invest an additional $100 billion, in addition to our current $65 billion investment...we're going to build three more new fabs.'“
-TSMC CEO Dr. C.C. Wei with President Trump at the White House (March 3, 2025.)
Simultaneously, Trump has called for repealing the CHIPS and Science Act—the bipartisan 2022 legislation providing $52.7 billion in semiconductor manufacturing subsidies—arguing that his tariff strategy will more effectively incentivize domestic production.
In this high-stakes game, Trump is attempting the political equivalent of squaring the circle: unifying America's tech elite with its blue-collar manufacturing base by promising both accelerated AI development and the return of factory jobs.
A Volatile Race
Eye-catching announcements aside, the road ahead is treacherous. This isn't victory—it's the opening salvo in a protracted struggle for technological superiority. Rebuilding a domestic semiconductor ecosystem requires decades, not election cycles, regardless of investment levels. The US remains dependent on Taiwan's chip production, while China pours hundreds of billions into its own semiconductor and AI sectors to circumvent U.S. export restrictions. (I’ll write more on that soon.)
This isn't merely a trade dispute—it's an existential competition for control of AI itself and the military and economic dominance it promises. The escalation of U.S.-China trade tensions since 2017 coincides precisely with China's assertion of technological ambitions—this is no coincidence.
Beijing, predictably, won't accept these challenges passively. In response to Trump's latest tariffs, Chinese officials have signaled readiness for any "type of war," trade-based or otherwise. Meanwhile, China's defense budget, which has doubled since 2015, will maintain at 7.2% of GDP for 2025—approximately $249 billion. While significantly less than America's $850 billion military budget, it's being deployed with ruthless strategic focus on next-generation capabilities.
So what truly motivates Trump? The administrative chaos he generates and the bitter divisions he cultivates, both domestically and internationally, may obscure the larger strategic picture. Regardless of one's personal feelings toward Trump, we are witnessing the emergence of a new AI-centric world order—one where American leadership appears increasingly uncertain.
I've understood since 2017 that AI fundamentally represents POWER. And while Trump claims he will secure that power for America, the outcome remains deeply uncertain. If the US fails to dominate the AI landscape, who will fill the vacuum?
Coda: When Powers Corrupts AI Utopia
Far from the utopia promised by the founders of AI labs, global politics is barreling toward an extremely dangerous phase. Make no mistake—I remain profoundly optimistic about AI's potential to solve humanity's greatest challenges, from disease to climate change. The technology itself is revolutionary and transformative.
But history teaches us an uncomfortable truth: every transformative technology, no matter how noble its intended purpose, inevitably becomes weaponized by those who seek power. 'History is back,' with a vengeance—and should we really be surprised? Throughout the long march of human civilization, it is peace which has been the fleeting anomaly, not war. The pristine laboratories where AI researchers dream of digital abundance and shared prosperity will give way to the gritty reality of geopolitical competition.
The utopian visions of AI alignment and beneficial intelligence are already being corrupted by the gravitational pull of national interest and military advantage. We're watching in real-time as the most promising technology of our age—one that could genuinely elevate humanity—is being conscripted into the oldest game on earth: the ruthless competition for power.
That was insightful, and a nice case for the potential of AI as power if we were to form predictions. Do you have any visibility on the concrete impact of AI as of today? Here are some specific points that highlight my concerns:
AGI has long been considered theoretically possible, but practical feasibility remains elusive. Current large language models (LLMs) require immense computational resources, and simulating synthetic brain processes, even for brief periods, is costly. These models still fall short of demonstrating generalizable knowledge, and their next-token prediction accuracy is far from impressive. It's ironic that AGI predictions are framed within symbol manipulation, a concept cognitivists abandoned decades ago. Estimating the energy and financial costs of achieving AGI, and determining if it's materially feasible, remains a significant challenge.
I had the chance to hear Leslie Kaelbling on the current state of robotics, which is still unimpressive and slow to process real-time inference in a 4D environment. I feel that the most common usecase of AI is machine learning (either regression models or deep learning). LLMs have yet to gain traction outside the programming community, and advocates like Sam Altman, who call for increased funding, often present unconvincing arguments. Critics like Arvind Narayanan and Sayash Kapoor argue that AI in business is often just sophisticated regression models or used to optimize trivial tasks, such as HR recruitment based on dubious metrics like facial expressions. While AI excels in optimizing recommendation algorithms or processing documents, its application to real-world problems requiring high accuracy and public trust is questionable. For instance, imagining a future in which AI would handle air traffic control without public fear.
Medical applications hold promise, but current technologies like implants and EEG headsets remain underwhelming at the current state (I'm thinking of Inclusive Brains, for instance, which is pretty promising). Specialized medical robotics, while impressive, doesn't necessarily require transformer architectures. AI's potential in security and defense is notable, but then we need funded public research to discover the next algorithm that will make us progress.
My views may be pessimistically biased, as I have limited insight into AI's applications in the private sector. I would appreciate if you could share some more practical insights.
Any thoughts on what this means for emerging markets and the periphery? It’s super interesting to read about the head to head competition and it made me curious what you think the trajectory is for the rest. Prior to Biden leaving the White House they released some kind of strategic partnerships document on who they would collaborate with and how in this race. The UK and France for example were in the first closest confidants while Poland found itself in the second priority which again caused disappointment and internal debate. Has the U.S. under this administration tossed the partnership model completely into the same bin as NATO?