10 Predictions for Generative AI in 2023

A year of exponential growth, mass adoption, hype and controversy


Dear all,

2022, The Coronation Year for Generative AI, is drawing to a close. Twelve months ago, I predicted this would be a breakthrough year — but even I am surprised by the speed and scale by which it is happening.

As New Year’s Eve approaches, here are my ten predictions for Generative AI in 2023. (Henry and I also had the chance to discuss this yesterday — you can watch our conversation above.)

Top line: Generative AI will go mainstream in 2023, inspiring both awe and fear. Yet, this is only just the beginning.


10 Predictions for Generative AI in 2023

  1. Exponential Acceleration: Technical advances will be exponential. The outputs will make the likes of ChatGPT and Stable Diffusion 3.0 look relatively quaint by comparison.

  2. Investment Hysteria: The investment hype will become hysteria. Billions of dollars will flow into the space. Sorting the wheat from the chaff will be the order of the day.

  3. Battle of the Titans: The competition between the tech giants will continue to evolve. Expect the likes of Apple, Microsoft and Nvidia to start making more significant and direct plays in the space.

  4. David v Goliath: Will the Generative AI upstarts such as Stability AI and Open AI curb the dominance of the tech giants? Watch how the titans continue to invest in and collaborate with the new kids on the block.

  5. Mass Proliferation: Hundreds of millions of people of all ages and worldwide will interface with Generative AI. Whether through ubiquitous software or creator platforms like Microsoft Word or TikTok — GenAI will be everywhere.

  6. Business Transformation: Generative AI will become a buzzword for businesses. Early adopters will implement Generative AI systems to cut costs and optimise processes.

  7. National Security: Major nation-states will start thinking about a national strategy for Generative AI. If they don’t, they should — not having one will put them at a geopolitical disadvantage.

  8. Regulation: Regulators will focus in earnest on the space. The EU’s proposed AI Act, the first law on AI by a significant regulator anywhere, will be a bellwether. Watch out for how they approach the open source space, that will be very important.

  9. Public Kickback: The furore about ‘AI art’ hints at more significant storms. Public controversy about Generative AI will see the emergence of increasingly vocal and organised political movements against it. Training data and the automation of jobs will be lightning rods.

  10. Open or Closed: Negative applications and real-world vulnerabilities of Generative AI will come to the fore. This will fuel the debate around ‘safety’ and whether these technologies should be open or closed.

2023 promises to be a year of exponential growth, mass adoption, hype and controversy for Generative AI.

I can’t wait to explore it with you. Thank you again for the phenomenal support in the two weeks since I launched this Substack. We already have thousands in our community, and we are growing quickly. Keep spreading the word! (And consider supporting me with a paid subscription.)

For now, whenever you are in the world: Happy New Year; Frohes neues Jahr and नयाँ बर्षको शुभकामना!

See you on the other side,